To what extent are vagrancy rates are linked to environmental change?

The following item discussing the convergence of twitchers in response to the sighting of Purple Gallinules on the opposite side of the continent to their usual range got me wondering if / when it would be possible to distinguish the the impacts of environmental change on the rates of observation of species outside of their normal range from the increased amount of time spent searching for vagrants. Perhaps a potential thesis topic …

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2010/09/birders-converging-at-san-gabriel-river-for-rare-sighting-on-purple-gallinules.html ===============================

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